In a surprising development, India has surpassed the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia to become Kenya's leading supplier of petroleum products. This shift is primarily due to the US-Iran war in the Middle East disrupting global fuel-trading routes. Despite being a net importer of crude oil, India's substantial expansion of refining capacity over the past few decades has enabled this change. According to energy economist Anas Alhajji from Dallas, India now supplies gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and fuel oil to Kenya, replacing the UAE and Saudi Arabia in this role. Moreover, India's petroleum-product exports to Africa reached a record high in July 2026, increasing by 66% year-on-year, as reported by Alhajji. This shift in Kenyan fuel supplies is part of a broader trend, with Africa emerging as the main market for Indian fuels following the EU's ban on imports of petroleum products refined from Russian crude. Traditionally, Kenya sourced petrol, diesel, and jet fuel through agreements with Saudi Aramco, ADNOC, and the Emirates National Oil Company. However, disruptions in the Middle East due to the US-Iran war have forced Kenya to seek fuel supplies from India. As a significant player in the global oil refining industry, India is the fourth-largest oil refiner worldwide and Asia's second-largest refiner. Its 22 operational refineries have an annual capacity of 258.1 million tonnes. Despite importing over 90% of its crude oil, India exported 61.5 million tonnes of petroleum products in the 2025-26 fiscal year. The UAE's petroleum-product shipments to Kenya have dropped significantly, from around 90,000 barrels per day in January to approximately 15,000 barrels per day in August. This shift was evident as early as March 2026, when 82.38 million litres of kerosene from India were discharged in Mombasa. By July 2026, India's exports to Kenya had increased by 151.41% compared to the same month in 2025, making Kenya one of India's five fastest-growing export destinations that month. This increase covered all categories of product, with petroleum products being a significant driver of India's overall export growth in July, rising by 67.64% globally. India was Kenya's third-largest trading partner in 2025-26, with bilateral trade reaching $4.31 billion. Petroleum products head the list of principal Indian exports to Kenya.